Baseball Expected Runs

From Robin Zimmermann, a clever rule-of-thumb for how many runs to expect will score in a given situation, depending on how many outs there are in the inning and where the runners are:

Summarizing in a chart, and rounding:

Outsnone1st2nd3rd1&21&32&3loaded
00.50.91.21.41.61.82.02.4
10.20.40.71.00.91.21.41.6
20.10.20.30.40.40.50.60.7

This results in a prediction that roughly concurs, according to Robin, with a Baseball Prospectus article tabulation of average runs scored depending on where the runners are and the number of outs. That data changes over time, and of course varies wildly among teams and with specific baserunning and hitting and pitching and fielding abilities of the players on any given day. But for a "ballpark estimate" (<groan!>) it's not bad. Many thanks, Robin!

(cf. SquareRootOfBaseball (2005-05-13), InTheBigInning (2006-01-31), BaseballOdds (2007-04-21), ...) - ^z - 2015-04-16