EMMA

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Port Security long-term strategy model

Port Security long-term = http://tiny.mitre.org/851A

Threat Level is driven up in a port by:

Defensive Spending increases when the Threat Level is higher, and that results in:

Attacker Spending increases with more perceived Vulnerable Facilities, and greater Attacker Spending results in:

Port Security - IMMEDIATE factors

Port security immediate factors = http://tiny.mitre.org/8517

The IMMEDIATE threat level is a function of:

But note that this does NOT include longer-term feedback loops and issues, including:

Port Security Attack/Defense Sketch #2

Port Security Data Flow = http://tiny.mitre.org/84EA

Another sketch, with additional textual labels/annotations, for the PAPA challenge of Port Security modeling ... this is clearly NOT a Causal Flow Diagram (CFD) but rather just a provoke-conversation picture of "Actors and Factors" beginning with Attackers and Defenders ... in words:

Port Security Data/Modeling Flows

Port Security data flow = http://tiny.mitre.org/84C8

Negative feedback might occur in the costs of data collection, "noise" in anomaly detection, false-alarms in threat generation, etc.

In words, the Data/Modeling flow depicted is:

Generation and Analysis of Hypotheses

Loopy diagram for Hypothesis Analysis = http://tiny.mitre.org/84B2

initial experiment -- needs NEGATIVE feedback elements also!

Adversarial Deception Operation

Loopy diagram for Adversary Deception Op Analysis = http://tiny.mitre.org/84AD - sketches out a toy model of an Adversarial Deception Op:

note that this model needs more negative feedback loops!

VIP Travel/Meeting Asset Protection

Loopy diagram for VIP Meeting Journey Protection = http://tiny.mitre.org/848A

Causal Flow Diagram, a cartoon simplification of the VIP Travel/Meeting Asset Protection challenge situation, including such elements as:

Target Analysis

Loopy diagram for Target Analysis = http://tiny.mitre.org/8489

a tiny Causal Flow Diagram, caricaturing the process of target analysis:

Technology Analysis (and the S&T R&D Process)

Loopy diagram for Technology Development Analysis = http://tiny.mitre.org/84C6

a silly-tiny model of the S&T R&D process ... note the two potential cycles, civil and military -- somewhat competing!