Be Skeptical of Bluster

A wise thought, expressed four years ago by Catherine Rampel in her Washington Post opinion essay "The Self-Assurance Imbalance in the Workplace": instead of criticizing women (or men) for not being confident enough in expressing their opinions, better might be "... coaching voters, students, bosses and viewers at home how to be a bit more skeptical of the loudest guy (or gal) in the room."

... men seem much more willing to be blowhards than women are — during dinner parties, at the office, on anonymous phone surveys and in the nation's fine op-ed pages. And as long as both employers and peers continue to conflate bluster with aptitude and to reward bombast with respect and job promotions, the only way women can successfully compete with men is to be not just more confident but overconfident in everything they do, too. ...

Instead, be a better Bayesian in evaluating the strength of arguments — give less weight to judgments expressed by those who are habitually loud and lack self-awareness of their own cognitive (and metacognitive) weaknesses.

(cf. [[1], Big Names (2000-06-13), Hare Brain, Tortoise Mind (2005-06-03), Thinking, Fast and Slow (2013-10-24), Thinking v Decisiveness (2014-04-30), Superforecasting (2016-02-21), Forecasting Lessons from Systems Dynamics (2017-07-05), Competence vs Confidence (2017-12-07), ...) - ^z - 2018-04-02