Predictably Irrational

The Dan Ariely Lecture that I attended some months ago had a lot of overlap with the contents of Predictably Irrational, Prof. Ariely's 2008 book subtitled "The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions". The published version has more detail, however, and covers a wider range of human foibles. It's also extraordinarily well-written, fast, and fun. The tone is chatty and personal-anecdotal, but with lots of statistically tested data and quantitative analysis.

In brief, Predictably Irrational is about why people make the choices they do. We clearly have not evolved into utility-maximizing machines, at least not for any logical definition of "utility". As Ariely observes in chapter 2:

Socrates said that the unexamined life is not worth living. Perhaps it's time to inventory the imprints and anchors in our own life. Even if they once were completely reasonable, are they still reasonable? Once the old choices are reconsidered, we can open ourselves to new decisions—and the new opportunities of a new day. That seems to make sense.

Ariely's thoughtful, self-critical tone is reminiscent of Ken Knisley's in No Dogs or Philosophers Allowed. Some other memorable tidbits from Predictably Irrational:

• "Social norms" (non-monetary interactions among people) are often overlooked but can be extraordinarily important. As Chapter 4 concludes, "... If we contemplate how market norms have gradually taken over our lives in the past few decades—with their emphasis on higher salaries, more income, and more spending—we may recognize that a return to some of the old social norms might not be so bad after all. In fact, it might bring quite a bit of the old civility back to our lives."
• Chapter 9's discussion of how expectations color perception offers important lessons for long-distance running (and other sometimes-challenging activities). Optimism pays huge dividends. "When we believe beforehand that something will be good, therefore, it generally will be good—and when we think it will be bad, it will be bad."
• The "List of Collaborators" at the back is a delightful set of 17 mini-biographies, uniformly cheery and magnanimous. Anybody reading it would definitely want to work with Ariely on a project!

Bottom line: just as we've learned about optical illusions (and similar perceptual breakdowns) and, once educated, are wary and can avoid being fooled, we should know about the bugs that have evolved in naïve human decisionmaking mechanisms. Then we can avoid being manipulated by marketers, hornswoggled by politicians, and the like. Predictably Irrational does a fine job of highlighting many such flaws in human choice.

(cf Thinking, Fast and Slow (2013-10-24), ...) - ^z - 2011-02-22