Scenario Planning and Probabilistic Forecasting

In the Nov/Dec 2020 issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, J. Peter Scoblic & Phil Tetlock share insights in their essay "A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future". BLUF:

In other words, use observables to define indicators, and apply good systems thinking to build mental models of the future!

(cf Fifth Disciplinarians (2000-09-10), Forecasting Lessons from Systems Dynamics (2017-07-05), Superpowers - Systems Thinking, Asking, and Listening (2019-01-29), Dancing with Systems (2019-06-21), Systems Thinking Icebergs (2019-06-27), Mantra - Be More Meta (2020-01-02), ...) - ^z - 2020-12-10