Hans Rosling (1948-2017) and two of his kids in 2018 finished a fun, fluffy, fairly useful book Factfulness. It's subtitled "Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think". It's optimistic in tone and metacognitive in content, chatty and slow, full of what it ostensibly opposes: first-person anecdotes about politics and economics and life. Briefly:

• many things are getting better on this planet
• people should base judgments on facts
• rigorous thinking is hard

Factfulness spins those three themes, at length, into a book that could have been (and maybe was) a fine short talk or essay. A Busy Executive Summary, based on the book's own synopses of ten things to beware:

• Gaps: look for the majority – recognize when a story talks about a gap, and remember that this paints a picture of two separate groups, with a gap in between. The reality is often not polarized at all. Usually the majority is right there in the middle, where the gap is supposed to be. Beware comparisons of averages or extremes.
• Negativity: expect bad news – recognize when we get negative news, and remember that information about bad events is much more likely to reach us. When things are getting better we often don't hear about them. This gives us a systematically too-negative impression of the world around us, which is very stressful. Distinguish between a level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g., better), and note that things can be both getting better and still bad.
• Straight Lines: lines might bend – recognize the assumption that a line will just continue straight, and remember that such lines are rare in reality. Many trends are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines.
• Fear: calculate the risks – recognize when frightening things get our attention, and remember that these are not necessarily the most risky. Risk = Danger * Exposure. Don't decide from emotion or panic.
• Size: put things in proportion – recognize when a lonely number seems impressive (small or large), and remember that you could get the opposite impression if it were compared with or divided by some other relevant number. Compare per capita, think "80/20", and look at the most important items on a list.
• Generalization: question categories – remember that binning can be deceptive, look for differences within groups and similarities across groups, and beware exceptionally vivid examples that may be exceptional cases.
• Destiny: observe slow changes – keep track of gradual improvements, and update estimates when things change quickly.
• Single Perspectives: use multiple viewpoints – "be a toolbox, not a hammer", test your thinking, recognize what you don't know, and beware oversimplification.
• Blame: resist scapegoating – look for causes, not villains; accept that bad things can happen without anyone intending them to; recognize multiple interacting causes; see Systems, not heroes.
• Urgency: recognize that most important decisions are not urgent – take a breath, gather information, beware point predictions and drastic hasty action, consider side-effects, and strive for long-term impact.

(cf [1], ...) - ^z - 2020-02-14