Gerd Gigerenzer, psychologist, has thought and researched and written about the heuristics of human cognition in real-life situations of uncertainty and risk. Key concepts:

• optimization isn't free, and good-enough is often better than best — remember the costs of choosing (be Meta!)
• apply decision rules that are as simple as possible (but no simpler!)
• build a mental toolkit for use if and when needed, including such concepts as:
  • familiarity and novelty
  • logic and causality
  • likelihood and fluctuation

^z - 2018-11-10