I still haven't worked out a formula for BaseballOdds (cf. ^zhurnal 21 Apr 2007) but I'm starting to suspect that simplest and best might be to assume a constant rate of run production — something like half of a run per inning, or one sixth of a run per out — and then do the statistics (a Poisson distribution?) for the chance of a team maintaining a lead or overcoming a deficit. That theoretical approximation could then be compared with actual experience, to fine-tune the parameters of the equations. If that looks promising, one could then adjust the factors depending on a team's strength, home vs. away, a particular pitcher's stats, etc.

But meanwhile, looking back at the scorebooks for the 2007 season reveals a variety of lazy summer afternoons and evenings worth remembering:

(cf. BaseballBlues2006 (4 Aug 2006), ...)

TopicRecreation - TopicPersonalHistory - 2007-09-08

(correlates: Edge of the Possible, MothersDay, Subway Agreement, ...)