Philip Tetlock's research into better thinking (see Expert Political Judgment) is extraordinarily important. From his new book (with Dan Gardner), Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, some characteristics of people who are good at overcoming biases and fallacies in their thinking:
- In philosophic outlook, superforecasters tend to be:
- Cautious: Nothing is certain
- Humble: Reality is infinitely complex
- Nondeterministic: What happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen
- In their abilities and thinking styles, superforecasters are:
- Actively open-minded: Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected
- Intelligent and knowledgeable, with a "need for cognition": Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges
- Reflective: Introspective and self-critical
- Numerate: Comfortable with numbers
- In their methods of predicting, superforecasters tend to be:
- Pragmatic: Not wedded to any idea or agenda
- Analytical: Capable of stepping back from the tip-of-your-nose perspective and considering other views
- Dragonfly-eyed: Value diverse views and synthesize them into their own
- Probabilistic: Judge using many grades of maybe
- Thoughtful updaters: When facts change, they change their minds
- Good intuitive psychologists: Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive and emotional biases
- In their work ethic:
- A growth mindset: Believe it's possible to get better
- Grit: Determined to keep at it however long it takes
(from [1] and [2]; cf. Thinking, Fast and Slow (2013-10-24), Fundamental Attribution Error (2013-11-13), Metacognition and Open Mindedness (2015-11-15), ...) - ^z - 2015-11-21
![[Home]](/images/zh.gif)