I still haven't worked out a formula for BaseballOdds (cf. ^zhurnal 21 Apr 2007) but I'm starting to suspect that simplest and best might be to assume a constant rate of run production — something like half of a run per inning, or one sixth of a run per out — and then do the statistics (a Poisson distribution?) for the chance of a team maintaining a lead or overcoming a deficit. That theoretical approximation could then be compared with actual experience, to fine-tune the parameters of the equations. If that looks promising, one could then adjust the factors depending on a team's strength, home vs. away, a particular pitcher's stats, etc.

But meanwhile, looking back at the scorebooks for the 2007 season reveals a variety of lazy summer afternoons and evenings worth remembering:

• 10 Jun 2007 - Youse's Orioles 1, Silver Spring-Takoma Thunderbolts 0 — son Robin keeps score and refines his notation for recording events. The only run scores in the top of the 9th, eked out from a couple of singles and a sacrifice. This first game of a double-header would normally go only seven innings, but the pitcher's duel 0-0 tie forces it to continue. We go home before the second contest begins.
• 14 Jun - Thunderbolts 2, Rockville Express 1 — the T-bolts come from behind to score twice in the 8th, after a grand slam home run by Rockville's Beau Brooks is ruled invalid due to pine tar that extends too far down the handle of his bat. See Robin Zimmermann's vivid description at [1] (also, The Grand Slam That Wasn't - RZ), based mainly on his detailed scorebook notes. Friend Steve Adams sits with us and shares our amazement at the umpire's ruling.
• 22 Jun - Thunderbolts 6, College Park Bombers 0 — a slugfest begins with one run in the 1st and four more in the 2nd inning. Then the third Bomber pitcher takes over and the game settles down.
• 30 Jun - Thunderbolts 9, College Park Bombers 1 — history almost repeats itself, with one T-bolt run in the 2st and four more in the 3nd.
• 2 July 2007 - Thunderbolts 8, Bethesda Big Train 4 — another high-scoring contest, with the T-bolts batting completely around in the 4th inning.
• 4 Jul - Washington Nationals 6, Chicago Cubs 0 — it's George Washington Bobblehead Doll Giveaway Day, so we go early with Ken Swab and get our collectibles. The Nats do well, especially young Ryan Zimmerman (no relation!) who strokes a homer in his first at bat. He and his teammates score five more runs in the 5th.
• 8 Jul - Big Train 9, Thunderbolts 4 — the T-bolts get spanked in this first game of a double-header, as Bethesda comes back from a 2-1 deficit to score five runs in the 6th inning, plus another pair for insurance in the 7th. Robin and I leave then and don't see the T-Bolts lose 4-2 in the second game.
• 20 Jul - Thunderbolts 4, Herndon Braves 3 — a home run by T-bolt Joe Fowler soars over the left field fence to hit a hut behind the county fire station. The 'Bolts score all their runs in the 3rd inning, while Herndon plates one each in the 1st, 4th, and 8th.
• 28 Jul - Orioles 2, Thunderbolts 2 — a tie game, suspended after 9 innings when thunderstorms move into the area. The game is never completed, since the Cal Ripken, Sr. Collegiate Baseball League post-season tournament begins only three days later and the result of today's match do not matter. (The T-bolts finish their season at 0.500 and are unfortunately eliminated during the second round of the playoffs.)
• 19 Aug - New York Mets 8, Washington Nationals 2 — it's Gray's first live baseball game. The Nats are tied after 7 innings, but then the floodgates open and wash them away. Wily Mo Peña, newly arrived from Boston, hits his first home run as a Nat. We leave after 8 innings to beat the crowds on the subway.
• 3 Sep - Washington Nationals 6, Florida Marlins 3 — the University of Maryland Chemistry Department has free tickets and is hosting a tailgate party, so Merle and Gray and I with friend Brett Hammond drive together to the game. Wily Mo Peña thwacks another home run for us and Ryan Zimmerman doubles to knock in a run. Comrade Ken Swab phones us from the opposite side of the stadium and we chat between plays. We leave after 7 innings, fearing heavy traffic, but are more scared when we hear the Marlins score two in the 8th. Fortunately they get no farther.

(cf. BaseballBlues2006 (4 Aug 2006), ...)

TopicRecreation - TopicPersonalHistory - 2007-09-08

(correlates: Edge of the Possible, MothersDay, Subway Agreement, ...)